After the fears of the start of week, operators probably needed to blow. They themselves are therefore granted a small consolidation session yesterday. Despite a barrel of oil well oriented, the dollar, which usually moves in the opposite direction, awarded gains against major currencies. He continued to take advantage of the "recoupling" business between the US and the rest of the world, as economic crisis spreads. Degradation of the global economy which could ultimately lead to decreases in the rates, especially in the euro area and the United Kingdom, where the rent of money remains significantly higher. The appreciation of the dollar seems to be widely access weakness of other currencies, because, despite a recent series of correct indicators, "the economic environment remains threatening transatlantic, with persistent fears about the health of the financial sector", said Nordine Naam, strategist rates and exchange rates for SociÃ©tÃ© GÃ©nÃ©rale. Calculated to a basket of six currencies, the dollar advanced as 0.45, yesterday, at the end of European session approaching its December 2007 levels.
Weakness of the pound
Among the losers of the day, the pound suffered rapid deterioration of economic prospects in Britain. Evidenced by the study of the CBI employers ' organisation on trends in the industry. The balance of positive and negative opinions strongly deteriorated in August with a score of 13 regarding the evolution of order books (against July 8) as the production (against July 7). In parallel, investors have dissected the "minutes" of the last meeting of the monetary policy Committee of the Bank of England (BoE), which had culminated, for the fourth time in a row, on the maintenance of the main interest rate to 5. Acquired decision, as at the previous meeting by a majority of seven votes against a minority of two dissenting voices, one wishing to increase and the other one down. The position of the BoE is however considered very slightly more bearish, because, if the issuing Institute continues to judge the current monetary policy "appropriate", he believes that the inflationary threats "are a" little reduced since one month, even if the increase in the consumer price reached in July its highest level since January 1997, at 2.3. This is what had already suggested the quarterly report on inflation published on August 10, that "inflation exceeds the target of 2 in the short term before weakening." A scenario that allows to anticipate future declines in rates. In these circumstances, the pound lost yesterday 0.37 against the dollar, 1,8586 dollar, approaching its lowest level in two years.
This relative weakness, however, did not prevent British currency grab 0.18 against a still more misdirected euro. The European common currency has, it is true, was supported by poor statistics disclosed in recent days, both on the front of growth than inflation.
This pessimism on the European economy is widely shared by markets, which explains that the rebound of the euro, after the progression of 8 per cent recorded by the dollar since mid-July, was so shy. Since its lowest in six months, registered Friday to 1,4678 dollar, the European currency was resumed that 0.7 early in the week, before again, sink loser 0.57, to 1,4698 dollar.
The greenback was also well oriented against the other currencies, with a growth rate of 0.23 against the yen, 110.02 yen, and 0.88 against the Swiss franc, 1,1012 franc. Rest, Natixis team as many analysts of the foreign exchange market, the recovery of the dollar is probably premature, both the first world economy still seems far from out of the crisis.